A buyer signing a preliminary agreement today is not negotiating under the same conditions as eighteen months ago. Credit rates have begun to decline, the rules for the energy performance diagnosis (DPE) have changed for small properties, and short-term rentals are now subject to a new legal framework since the end of 2024. Here are the real estate market trends that are significantly changing the game for a purchase or sale project in 2024.
Correction of the DPE for homes under 40 m²: what it changes for buyers
Since July 1, 2024, the calculation thresholds for the energy performance diagnosis have been adjusted for homes under 40 m². The issue was known: in a studio or a two-room apartment, the relative weight of hot water consumption artificially inflated the energy label. As a result, properties in good condition were classified as F or G, thus considered thermal sieves.
Specifically, an updated certificate can be downloaded from the existing DPE, without having to redo the complete diagnosis. For an investor targeting small properties in the city center, this correction changes the calculations: a studio reclassified as E or D is removed from the gradual rental prohibition and regains value upon resale.
A detailed follow-up of these regulatory developments can be found on the website www.magazine-immobilier.fr, which covers both prices and ongoing legislative changes.
This recalibration does not concern larger apartments. If you are targeting a T3 or larger, the DPE remains unchanged. The measure specifically targets the segment where the statistical distortion was the greatest.
Le Meur Law and short-term rentals: a stricter framework for furnished tourist accommodations
Law No. 2024-1039, known as the Le Meur Law, adopted on November 19, 2024, redefines the rules for tourist rentals in France. The main change: mayors can reduce the maximum rental duration of a primary residence from 120 to 90 days by simple resolution of the municipal council.
For a property owner who supplemented their income by renting out their apartment for a few months a year on a platform, the room for maneuver is shrinking. In tight tourist municipalities, this limitation aims to bring more housing back onto the traditional rental market.
Taxation of unclassified furnished rentals: the micro-BIC tightens
The other aspect directly affects the wallet. For income received starting in 2025, the micro-BIC regime for unclassified tourist accommodations now provides:
- A flat-rate deduction reduced to 30%, compared to a much more favorable framework before
- A revenue ceiling set at 15,000 euros, effectively excluding properties with high summer turnover
- An incentive to have your furnished property classified to maintain a more advantageous tax regime
An unclassified furnished property loses a significant part of its tax advantage compared to unfurnished or classified furnished rentals. Feedback on this point varies depending on local situations, but the trend clearly pushes towards classification or transitioning to long-term leases.
Real estate transaction volume in 2024: where is the floor?
The old property market has reached a low point. According to data from the Higher Council of Notaries, the volume of transactions for existing homes over a twelve-month period reached 793,000 sales by the end of May 2024. The annual decline stabilized around 22% since November 2023.
To find such low volumes, one has to go back to December 2015.
Second half of 2024: a plateau before recovery
Credit conditions have gradually loosened over the year, contributing to stabilizing volumes in the second half after a first half still in decline.
We are not yet seeing a clear recovery. Buyers remain cautious, sellers are adjusting their prices with a delay, and the new market is facing its own difficulties (construction costs, scarcity of land). But the signal is there: the floor seems to have been reached.
Real estate prices in France: the decline slows but does not reverse
After an average drop of 4% in 2023 according to the CSN, the price correction continued in 2024 but at a more moderate pace. Notaries anticipated a gradual easing of this decline.
The coastal market is among the first segments where price adjustments are becoming noticeable. Overvalued properties during the post-Covid period are approaching levels more consistent with current borrowing capacities.
For a buyer, the window is interesting: prices have not yet risen, credit rates are falling, and competition among buyers remains moderate with fewer than 800,000 annual transactions. The balance of power temporarily leans towards the buyer, especially in areas where supply has been replenished.
This rebalancing will not last indefinitely. A recovery in sales volumes, even gradual, will eventually stabilize and then raise prices in the most sought-after sectors. The decisions to be made today are less about perfect timing and more about the quality of the property and its energy performance, which has become a full-fledged negotiation criterion.
